PMI Risk Management Professional Practice Exam

How can bias in three-point estimates be effectively detected during quantitative risk analysis?

1. Ask for independent estimates outside their expertise

2. Ask about assumptions and compare to shared assumptions

3. Quantify bias using distribution differences

4. Inquire if bias was introduced into estimates

The correct answer is: Ask about assumptions and compare to shared assumptions

The choice that is identified as the correct answer focuses on the importance of understanding and clarifying the assumptions that underlie the estimates provided by team members or stakeholders. In quantitative risk analysis, particularly when using three-point estimates (which typically consist of a best case, worst case, and most likely estimate), assumptions play a critical role in shaping those estimates. By asking about the assumptions made during the estimation process, and then comparing those assumptions to a set of shared or agreed-upon assumptions within the team or project, analysts can identify inconsistencies or biases that may influence the accuracy of the risk estimates. If individuals have different baseline assumptions, it could lead to a variance in their three-point estimates, potentially reflecting personal bias rather than a balanced evaluation of risk. This method promotes transparency and can help in arriving at a more cohesive and accurate understanding of the risks involved. Therefore, this approach allows for a more structured and collaborative process of estimation, where biases can be spotted through a discussion of assumptions rather than just focusing on the numerical outputs themselves. The validity of estimates is enhanced when they are grounded in a common understanding of the context and conditions surrounding the project.