PMI Risk Management Professional Practice Exam

What can best reduce bias in team estimates to make risk analyses more consistent and reliable?

1. Build a shared set of assumptions with the team prior to starting estimates.

2. Use a beta distribution rather than a triangular distribution for combining estimates.

3. Use a normal distribution rather than a beta distribution for combining estimates.

4. Build a common understanding of the perils of bias prior to collecting estimates.

The correct answer is: Build a shared set of assumptions with the team prior to starting estimates.

Building a shared set of assumptions with the team prior to starting estimates is crucial for reducing bias in team estimates and ensuring that risk analyses are both consistent and reliable. When team members discuss and agree upon a common set of assumptions, it creates a unified baseline from which all estimates can be derived. This process not only aligns the team's understanding of the project scope and context but also helps to surface any individual biases that might skew the estimations. When participants have a shared framework, it minimizes the variability in interpretations of data, requirements, and potential risks, leading to a more cohesive and accurate set of estimates. This approach encourages open discussions, allowing team members to clarify their viewpoints and assumptions, which ultimately reduces individual biases and enhances collaborative input. Other methods mentioned, such as using specific distributions to combine estimates, can provide analytical benefits but do not directly address the inherent biases that may arise from differences in understanding or perspective among team members. Building a common understanding of assumptions is a more foundational step that lays the groundwork for effective risk estimation processes.