PMI Risk Management Professional Practice Exam

What technique is most appropriate for establishing a reserve for project duration based on remaining uncertainty?

1. Expert judgment

2. Reserve analysis

3. Cost analysis

4. Monte Carlo simulation

The correct answer is: Reserve analysis

The most appropriate technique for establishing a reserve for project duration based on remaining uncertainty is reserve analysis. This technique involves evaluating the remaining project timeline and identifying risks that could potentially affect the duration of the project. By analyzing these risks, project managers can determine the appropriate amount of time to allocate as a reserve, which serves as a buffer against unexpected delays. Reserve analysis operates on the principle that uncertainties in project execution can lead to unforeseen events that may extend the project timeline. This analysis requires a thorough understanding of the project’s risk profile and the potential impacts of identified risks on schedule. By systematically assessing these uncertainties and incorporating a reserve appropriately, project managers can make informed decisions about the length of the project schedule and the necessary time buffers. In contrast, other options may not specifically focus on duration reserves. Expert judgment relies on the insights and opinions of experienced individuals, which can inform project decisions but may not provide a quantitative approach to establishing time reserves. Cost analysis focuses primarily on budgetary aspects rather than duration, and Monte Carlo simulation, while useful for understanding the probability of different outcomes based on risk factors, does not directly establish time reserves but rather helps in probabilistic risk assessments. Therefore, reserve analysis stands out as the best method for directly addressing the need for time reserves