PMI Risk Management Professional Practice Exam

Which component of risk probability indicates where progressive elaboration might be needed?

1. Range of accuracy

2. Expert judgment

3. Probability category assigned

4. Monetary cost or benefit

The correct answer is: Range of accuracy

The correct choice indicates that the range of accuracy is a crucial component of risk probability that highlights the need for progressive elaboration. In risk management, especially in the context of project management, uncertainty is inherent in estimating risks. The range of accuracy provides insight into the precision of these estimates and suggests a spectrum within which the actual risk might lie. When the range of accuracy is broad, it signals that further detail and refining of the data or assumptions behind the risk estimates may be necessary. This is where progressive elaboration comes into play; it allows project teams to gradually refine their understanding of the risks as more information becomes available, leading to more accurate forecasting and planning over time. In contrast, expert judgment serves as a framework for evaluating risk but doesn't directly indicate areas needing further development. The probability category assigned relates to the estimation of how likely a risk is, but it doesn't inherently indicate the scope for further refinement. Similarly, monetary costs or benefits help quantify the impact of risks but do not necessarily provide direction on where more detailed exploration is needed.